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The original market value observation is included in the topic # Google 1# Amazon 1# Apple 4#Facebook1.

Getting bigger, but not getting better.

Author/Sai Wen

Editing/Xiaoshimei

"absolute monarch" American technology giants, finally let Biden watch not bottom go to.

Recently, US President Biden signed an executive order, calling on federal government agencies to adopt policies to counter the actions that may stifle competition, lead to price increases, restrict consumers’ choices, reduce mergers and acquisitions, and crack down on monopoly giants in various industries.

The technology industry will bear the brunt of the impact. Previously, more than 30 states had launched anti-monopoly lawsuits against large American technology companies such as Amazon, Google, Apple and Facebook.

This article will focus on the following three issues:

1. What does Biden’s executive order and the new anti-monopoly bill mean to American technology giants?

2. Why are the top technology companies that once made Americans proud regarded as the chief culprit of the US economic recession?

3. Why has the government’s anti-monopoly against technology and Internet companies become a global trend?

one

Heavy-handed antitrust

The executive order signed by Biden this time puts forward guidance and restrictive measures for anti-competitive practices in science and technology, medical care and other fields. At the same time, it aims to increase workers’ income and provide protection for consumers. It involves 12 government departments and contains 72 specific administrative instructions.

▲ Biden signed an executive order.

Specifically, there are a lot of contents in the executive order pointing to the American technology giants.

M&A has become the focus of the U.S. government’s supervision in the science and technology industry, and technology giants will be subject to stricter restrictions when acquiring other small enterprises, especially those emerging competitors;

Introduce new restrictions for online monitoring, user data, etc.

Encourage the Federal Trade Commission to establish rules to prevent Internet companies from using unfair competition methods;

Encourage the FTC to prohibit consumer electronics manufacturers from excluding third-party maintenance policies.

Some media pointed out that Biden’s administrative instructions were specific to each executive department, and even included details about how to review transactions and competition activities, compared with previous governments that left tasks to various departments.

The determination is great and the plan is concrete, which is the most in recent years.

The unfair market environment brought by the monopoly of American technology giants has also led to the lack of innovation in the United States. Coupled with the rising price level and the falling wage level, American consumers and workers have become the payers of the carefree life of technology giants.

If Biden’s executive order can be successfully implemented within a few months, it will undoubtedly bring great pain to a number of large American technology companies.

The splitting of core business and departments, the reduction of product functions, the rejection of mergers and acquisitions, and the strict restrictions on data collection are all big troubles that technology giants will probably face.

The U.S. government, which has always held high the anti-monopoly issue for its own technology enterprises, is finally going to be serious.

2

Cunning tycoons

American technology companies are best at labeling themselves as innovative, free, transparent and shared, but in fact they are well versed in the way of "store bullying customers".

The unbearable White House, the new policy introduced this time, completely exposes how American technology giants put their own interests above consumers, and how they rely on their deep pockets to let small companies choose between death and annexation.

Just GAFA(Google Amazon Facebook Apple) can list countless examples.

▲ In July 2020, the CEOs of the four major American technology giants attended the antitrust hearing with the same screen.

Facebook maintains its market position by preventive acquisition. If you can’t buy it, copy it.

There is a special early warning intelligence department within Facebook, which mainly focuses on small start-ups that are innovating and developing products that may pose a threat to Facebook in the market. Once these companies become small, Facebook will immediately buy them. The acquisition will not achieve plagiarism and imitation, and then use its own number of users to crush each other. In short, it is necessary to absorb competitors or squeeze out the market.

Within the company, there is even a widely circulated philosophy: don’t bother to copy because of your pride.

Instagram was founded in 2011, and Facebook bought it for $1 billion in 2012. In 2014, Facebook spent $19 billion to buy WhatsApp, the largest instant messaging software in the world at that time.

Once those opponents were acquired and handed over users, markets and data, Zuckerberg stopped paying attention to them, but continued to put Facebook at the core of the product matrix, and even continued to let Facebook copy the algorithms and functions in various applications.

Amazon pretends to be a trading platform that provides matching services, but chooses to trade at the end and treat itself with peace of mind.

As an e-commerce platform, Amazon can obtain commercially sensitive information such as goods and transactions of third-party merchants. It "forces" consumers’ data from merchants, and makes customers’ preferences clear. These data analysis are not used to improve the experience of both parties to the transaction, but are used by Amazon to sell its own goods.

What other people sell well, Amazon will produce and put on the shelves, and let the self-operated goods occupy the recommendation position, pushing the competitive goods aside. The dual identity of platform and trader gives Amazon the opportunity to use its own data advantages to damage the fair market environment.

Both merchants and consumers finally find that the result of their selling and buying is nothing more than a wedding dress for Amazon’s stock price soaring.

▲ Protesters put up banners of "Let Amazon pay the price" and "We are not robots and data"

Google "rightfully" engages in the overlord clause.

The Android system made by Google has taken the lead in the global mobile phone system market share. As a result, Google "justifiably" makes global mobile phones tied to its own ecology. Chrome is pre-installed in the browser, Gmail is pre-installed in the mailbox, YouTube is the video software, and Google Maps is pre-installed in the map … No matter which country’s brand wants to use Android on the mobile phone, it must first bind the Google three-piece suit.

So far, there is only one country in the world where users can avoid the Google three-piece bundle, and that is China.

As long as the mobile phones sold in Chinese mainland are based on domestic manufacturers’ systems such as emui and miui, or foreign brands such as Samsung and LG equipped with Android, there is no need to pre-install Google. The appearance of Huawei’s self-developed HarmonyOS system makes Google’s idea of bundling even more difficult.

When Apple sells products, it wants to make money for maintenance.

Apple, which does not recognize third-party maintenance, does not support self-disassembly, and does not guarantee without spending much money, can achieve "one fish and three meals" on a piece of equipment-selling machines to earn a sum of money, repairing machines to earn a sum of money, and preventing machines from repairing to earn another sum of money.

In order to get official certification, consumers have to pay several times the price of roadside maintenance booths to get their equipment back.

Monopoly brings unparalleled market power and makes American technology giants "lawless". America’s innovation ability is being eroded by mergers and acquisitions, shanzhai, plagiarism and overlord clauses of these big companies, and the people have to pay for all these consequences.

"Capitalism without competition is not capitalism, but exploitation." This is Biden’s evaluation of monopoly enterprises.

▲ Biden tweeted: "I make it clear that capitalism without competition is not capitalism, but exploitation."

In the face of administrative orders and the latest anti-monopoly law, technology giants will not give in easily.

As soon as the bill came out, executives, lobbyists and propaganda groups of technology giants came to Congress and departments’ offices, found every relevant member of parliament, bombed mailboxes and telephones, and played up the terrible consequences of these laws.

"Anti-monopoly law should promote competition and protect consumers, not punish successful American companies." I don’t know if they can believe this kind of wandering speech …

three

Global wave

With the improvement of the epidemic situation, governments around the world have gradually shifted their attention to the economic field. Coincidentally, whether in the United States, China or the European Union, the government has put the anti-monopoly against technology giants in a prominent position, and it has taken unprecedented measures quickly and severely.

It has become a global wave to crack down on large-scale technology groups over the interests of consumers.

What is the logic behind this?

First, the characteristics of the technology industry itself make the consequences of monopoly more harmful to society.

Technology and network companies are not only selling a commodity, but also grabbing attention and creating a system ecology. The resources mastered by the technology giants can constantly March into other fields. An Internet-born enterprise can do news and software, as well as sell cars and engage in finance.

The traffic and users they get in the field of science and technology can be completely migrated to another field in this era. Then the monopoly in science and technology means that these giants may realize cross-market and cross-field monopoly in the future, and then the monopoly in the whole market and all fields.

▲ All-encompassing Google product matrix

When the user’s attention and all the users’ ecology are pinned on a few products, in fact, the individual has become a tool person at the mercy of capital.

The market loses competition, consumers lose choice, and large companies can complete the harvest without effort. So how can the government and individuals expect the market to be dynamic?

Second, the window of global technology upgrading has arrived, and all countries need to complete enterprise adjustment to adapt to the next stage of international competition. No matter whether a country’s technological development is mature or not, the anti-monopoly efforts against technology giants at the national level will only become stronger and stronger.

At this stage, 5G technology is gradually maturing, and the world is moving from the era of mobile internet to a new era of Internet of Things. The government should not only ensure that the domestic market is free from exploitation by foreign enterprises, but also fully stimulate the vitality of the market at key time nodes, so that those innovative enterprises that should take off in the next era will not be strangled in the cradle by giants.

At the same time, moderately beating the giants with the best resources, the strongest ability and the strongest financial resources is also to guide them to re-focus on technological research and innovation. Let them do something more "difficult", instead of letting consumers have no choice but to pay for some unskilled bullying behavior.

From this perspective, governments all over the world, including China and the United States, stand at the same starting point in science and technology antitrust.

The difference is that, compared with us, Biden has to use a much more complicated means to confront more and more cunning scientific and technological "elites" who have no fear of the government.

Good luck to him …

■ Disclaimer

This paper deals with the contents of listed companies, and is the author’s personal analysis and judgment based on the information publicly disclosed by listed companies according to their legal obligations (including but not limited to temporary announcements, periodic reports and official interactive platforms, etc.); The information or opinions in this article do not constitute any investment or other commercial suggestions, and Market Value Watch shall not be responsible for any actions arising from the adoption of this article.

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Original title: "Biden is going to fight the American tiger"

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Regardless of the price factor, if you rank the car’s face value, convenience and performance, I think for most girls, face value will be the first, then convenience, and then performance. With the increasing proportion of female consumers in the car circle, major car companies have also begun to grasp the demand points of female consumers, and have launched models specially built for female consumers, which are small and convenient with high value. Today, I will bring all the girls look look at these considerate car companies.

Wuling Hongguang MINIEV

The popular player of Wuling mini compact car broke 10 thousand in June alone. So, where did it win? I have to say, its outline and macaroon color scheme look like a cartoon car that will appear in an amusement park. It’s all soft and waxy, so don’t be too cute. The closed front face is equipped with oval headlights, and even the Wuling logo has its own design features, with a charging port hidden below. However, it is really unfriendly to put it in the underground parking lot. Generally, the front face will face outwards for convenience, but if it needs to be recharged, it will have to face inwards, which means fortunately the car is small. The shape of the rear of the car also echoes the front of the car. It is also an oval taillight. The outline is decorated with chrome trim, and the two lights are connected by contrast trim, which is relatively simple as a whole.

Configuration, conventional new energy vehicles should have, it also has, such as reversing images, uphill assistance, mobile APP remote control and other functions, which are enough for daily travel. In terms of power, the car adopts the rear motor layout, the maximum power can reach 30kW and the maximum torque is 92 N m. Although the power is much inferior to other conventional cars, its CLTC pure battery life is 215km, which is enough for daily commuting (according to the daily round trip of 20 kilometers), and it only needs to be charged once a week, and it is equipped with a fast charge, and it only takes 0 to charge the power from 30% to 80%.

Wuling binguo

Wuling Binguo locates small cars, and the starting price of 24 models is slightly higher than that of Wuling mini. If it is sold in June, this price is naturally inferior to its own mini, but it still ranks second in small cars. This Bingo vehicle looks less square and flatter. The most eye-catching feature of the front face is its slightly bulging closed middle net outline, and the lower surrounding is further decorated with black, which has a contrast effect. Viewed from the side, the car adopts a suspended roof design, which gives a full sense of movement, which is really in line with the aesthetics of contemporary young people.

Most notably, its endurance can be said to be quite excellent in the same class. The entry version is equipped with a 41-horsepower motor, and the endurance under CLTC conditions can reach 203km. The medium-sized version is equipped with a 68-horsepower motor, and the endurance is 333km. The top version has reached 410km.

Geely panda

As the name suggests, the appearance of Geely Panda really looks like a panda sitting on a plate. The round headlights are equipped with a slender closed grille, and a circle of black decorative strips is wound up on both sides. It really looks like a panda’s claws. From the whole car, the car exudes a cute and lovely atmosphere. Although the car is positioned as a mini-car, its space is still quite excellent. The four wheels are designed to be close to the edge, which makes the space supported to the maximum, and the seating and storage space in the car is more spacious.

In terms of power, Panda adopts a rear motor with a maximum power of 30kW, a peak torque of 110N·m, a pure electric cruising range of 200km, and a DC fast charging function of 22kW.

Chang’ an Lumin

The most recognizable thing about Changan Lumin is its round taillights, the outline of which is decorated with red light strips, which looks like a pair of half-squinted eyes. The interior part also has its own characteristics. The T-shaped center console is designed, and the air conditioning outlet runs through the whole front of the car, in which the upper part is equipped with a 10.25-inch floating LCD screen, and the lower part is the control position of the physical buttons.

In terms of power, a permanent magnet synchronous motor is loaded, with a total output of 35kW and a peak torque of 87N m.. Equipped with a single-speed gearbox for electric vehicles, the car can achieve a pure electric cruising range of up to 301km. In addition, it also supports two charging modes: fast charging can be completed within 0.58 hours, while slow charging takes about 10 hours to fully charge the battery.

Byd seagull

Friends who want to buy seagulls can wait. It is reported that 25 BYD seagulls will be listed in August. From the exposure map, the appearance of the new seagull has not changed much, and it still continues the classic design of the cash, but its tail logo "BUILD YOUR DREAMS" has been replaced by "BYD".

The upgrade of intelligent configuration is still very big. The whole system comes standard with intelligent automatic power-on and power-off function, and it is no longer equipped with card keys, which further improves the convenience of use. In addition, in the free version, the main driver’s seat electric adjustment function and the front seat heating function have been specially added. In terms of power, the new car is expected to carry a motor with a maximum power of 55kW and a maximum torque of 135N·m, and two endurance options are provided, namely 305km and 405km.

Bao jun yue ye

The sales of this car, to be honest, can’t compare with the previous ones, but why should I recommend it? That is, it is really suitable for the kind of girls who are particularly cool. Its design is completely different from the previous models. The unique headlights on the front face are matched with the narrow-banner enclosed front grille, the body lines are sharp, and the rear lights are in a ring style, which highlights the toughness and domineering.

The interior design is more mechanical, and the center console has obvious layering. It is equipped with a 10.25-inch full LCD instrument panel and central control panel, which can realize various scientific and technological functions. In terms of power, the car is equipped with a permanent magnet synchronous motor, with a maximum power of 50kW and a maximum torque of 140 N m. With an electric vehicle single-speed gearbox, it can achieve a speed of up to 100 km/h.

From the price point of view, the pricing of these six cars is within a reasonable range, and at this price, it is really good to be able to achieve value, convenience and performance. For girls who don’t pursue cars very much and just need to meet daily transportation, these cars are really suitable.

Recently, a number of stocks, such as Changjiang Power, Nanjing-Shanghai Expressway and China CNOOC, have set a record high in stumbling.

Even a slow bull stock like Changjiang Power, which has been hitting new highs for 20 years, has recorded a monthly decline of more than 5% for five times in the past three years. If investors lack a pre-judgment on the degree of bumps on the road to investment, then a bad investment experience is likely to wash investors out.

In fact, investment is counter-intuitive. In the bottom area of the stock market, Mr. Market is cold and depressed, and the already cheap stock price will be further cheaper. The rise seems to be in the foreseeable future, and investors can’t help but leave the market to wait and see, but this is precisely the sowing area, just like investors who have been long in blue chips in 2016 and 2018, they have won generous market rewards in the following years; In the top area of the stock market where everyone is hypnotized by the stock price, when investors revel and everyone seems to have a bumper harvest, the stock market just enters the high-risk and low-return range, just like investors who entered the market in 2007 and the first half of 2015, which is an important reason for investors who entered the market in early 2021 to Lacrimosa in the past three years.

What investment should pursue is to earn money that can outperform inflation in the long run, rather than a good investment experience. Even if the Dow Jones index has achieved an annualized rate of return of 11% in the past 70 years, investors will not have a good experience, because the retracement of more than 5% takes up most of the time, and people are either regretting why the last high point was not sold or worrying about when the next high point will come.

Successful investment can’t empathize with the market, especially in extremely pessimistic moments, because only in such moments, the downside risks are limited and the upside benefits are considerable. As David Swenson, the late chief investment officer of Yale University, said, holding uncomfortably different positions is painful until the final victory comes.

Stumbling to a new high

Changjiang Electric Power reached a record high on December 28th, 2023. Since November 18th, 2003, Changjiang Power has increased nearly 20 times in the past 20 years, which is a typical slow bull stock, but the fluctuation range of Changjiang Power is enough to scare off investors who follow suit.

Since 2021, Yangtze Power has increased by nearly 40% in three years, far outperforming the broader market. However, in the past three years, the stock price retreated more than 10% three times, and the retreat rate exceeded 12.7% from March to May in 2021; From October to November 2021, the withdrawal rate exceeded 13%; From July to November 2022, it retreated by nearly 20%.

In the past three years, the number of days that Changjiang Power rose was 344 trading days, and the number of days that it fell was 353 trading days. From a psychological point of view, the pain effect brought by the decline is three times that of the happiness effect brought by the rise. Therefore, although Yangtze Power has increased by 40% in the past three years, if the stock price is frequently checked, investors feel far more pain than happiness.

Nanjing-Shanghai Expressway hit a record high last month. Since its listing in 2001, it has increased by 5.27 times, with an annualized income of 8.3%. In the past three years, Nanjing-Shanghai Expressway has increased by 30%, and the biggest retracement of the stock in the past three years is 25%. As a public utility stock, the fundamentals of Nanjing-Shanghai Expressway are relatively transparent and stable, the dividend yield is clear and relatively predictable, and the intrinsic value is relatively stable, but the stock will also encounter emotional selling during the market downturn. However, in the long run, the stock price will eventually be close to the company’s fundamentals.

Xingqi Ophthalmology hit a record high last month. Since its listing on December 8, 2016, the stock has risen 50 times. The stock has also increased by 174% in the past three years, but the biggest retracement is as high as 59%. In June 2022, the stock peaked at 174.81 yuan, but it fell to 83.47 yuan in October 2022.

Kweichow Moutai, a long bull stock, has increased eight times since 2016, but it has happened three times when it retreated more than 30%. In June 2008, Kweichow Moutai once reached 803 yuan, but its share price fell all the way, and the decline accelerated in October. In November 2018, it once dropped to a low of 509 yuan, with the largest retracement reaching 37%. In February, 2021, Kweichow Moutai once reached 2627 yuan, and in August, 2021, it reached 1525 yuan, with a retracement rate of 42%. During the period from June to October 2022, the maximum withdrawal was 37%.

Volatility is the truth of the stock market.

Because greed and fear dominate the market periodically, the stock market is always accompanied by quite violent fluctuations. When the market is pessimistic, the corresponding price-earnings ratio may fall in the range of 8-9 times, and when the market is optimistic, the corresponding price-earnings ratio will be more than 25 times. Even if the fundamentals of listed companies are steadily rising, the fluctuation of valuation will lead to the share price being easily halved.

Yao Zhang, a stock price investor, once said: "Fluctuation is the nature of the market. How can there be no fluctuation among thousands of various participants? It is the fluctuation that creates a source of profit, allowing various types of investors to find reasons for buying and selling, and allowing value investors to find value-for-money prices."

Duan Yongping almost holds a single stock in the US stock market-Apple, but he thinks that no one may be more happy than him to see Apple’s share price fall. "Investors can only imagine the company as a non-listed company, and they will understand without stock price changes. However, most people can’t do this. Objectively speaking, if there is no way to treat a company as a non-listed company, most investors will eventually lose money. " Duan Yongping once said. In the past 10 years, Duan Yongping’s holding of Apple has earned about 10 times the income, and he has also experienced four plunge in the past 10 years.

Investing in the stock market requires a certain tolerance. Investors need to anticipate stock price fluctuations, even violent fluctuations, as John Berg, founder of Pioneer Fund, said, "If you can’t stand the heat, you should stay away from the kitchen".

This is a real case told by Morgan Hauzer, a famous Wall Street investor, in The Psychology of Money. He cited the example of Dow Jones index and gave a mathematical explanation for this phenomenon.

Image source: Morgan Hauzer, Money Psychology

The gray interval in the picture represents the stage when the current price is at least 5% lower than the previous historical high, and this gray stage is the time when you will be unhappy-because during this "gray" time, you are either regretting why the last high point was not sold or worrying about when the next high point will come. There is no need for accurate statistics at all. We can see with the naked eye that the gray "unhappy" period has occupied most of the time in these 70 years.

Great investors are made, and many investors who have stood the test of time have suffered a lot of market pressure. Charles Munger once said, "Our generation, this batch of people who make value investments, is not made. Stick to it, you don’t even need to be smart. "

Investment needs to distinguish the stock price from the intrinsic value of the stock. Investment needs to be "insensitive". If you keep an eye on the short-term stock price, investors will not only have a bad experience, but also be fooled by the market, buy high and sell low, and run in the wrong direction; If we regard investment as "the stock price is what you pay, and the value is what you get", we should pay close attention to the relatively stable intrinsic value, ignore the jumping stock price, or use the irrational market to buy low and sell high, so that investors can earn long-term money and avoid resonating with market sentiment to form good investment results.

(The original title is "A shares continue to slump, but these stocks have reached a new high! What are the commonalities? Great investments are made! 》）