The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a press conference on the operation of key agricultural products market in 2019.
On Wednesday, January 15th, 2020, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a regular press conference in the Information Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs to introduce the market operation of key agricultural products in 2019 and answer questions from reporters.
Conference site
China Network Zhang Ruiyu photo
Ning Qiwen, Deputy Director of the General Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs:
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, friends from the media. Welcome to the press conference held by the Information Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. The theme of today’s conference is to introduce the market operation of key agricultural products in 2019. Today, I am very pleased to invite Mr. Keke, Director of the Market and Information Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and Mr. Wang Junxun, the second inspector of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau, to introduce the situation to us and answer your questions.
First of all, please ask Director Tang to inform you about the situation.
Keke, Director of Market and Information Department of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs:
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, friends from the media. Welcome to the regular press conference. The Spring Festival is in less than 10 days. First of all, on behalf of the Market and Information Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, I wish you happiness and well-being, and thank you for your long-term concern and support for the information work in the agricultural and rural markets. Near the Spring Festival, it is the time to concentrate on purchasing new year’s goods, and everyone is particularly concerned about the operation situation of agricultural products market. Below, I will give you a brief briefing on the operation of key agricultural products market in 2019 and the prospect in 2020, as well as the key work in the field of agricultural and rural market information.
Since 2019, under the impact of multiple internal and external uncertainties in agriculture, the prices of some agricultural products have fluctuated greatly, but the market supply is generally sufficient, the price increase is limited, and the trend among varieties is obviously differentiated, showing the characteristics of "one stability, one rise and one fluctuation". "One stability" means that the production of bulk agricultural products such as grain, cotton, oil and sugar is stable, the stock is sufficient, and the market operation is basically stable, and the agricultural product market continues to play the role of "ballast stone"; "One rise" refers to the tight supply in the pork market and the large price increase, which drives the overall price of livestock and poultry products to strengthen; "One fluctuation" means that the price of fruits and vegetables is high before and then low, and the price fluctuates greatly due to adverse weather, but it still conforms to the seasonal law as a whole. From the main varieties:
Rice and wheat: stable production, sufficient stocks, and lower prices. In 2019, the production of rice and wheat decreased and increased, the total output of rations remained stable, the inventory was at a historical high, and the market price was weak. After the new grain was listed, the implementation plan for the minimum purchase price of wheat, early indica rice and middle and late rice was launched one after another. In December, the market purchase prices of late indica rice and japonica rice were 1.20 yuan and 1.32 yuan per catty, respectively, down 6.3% and 7.7% year-on-year; The prices of ordinary wheat and high-quality wheat in Zhengzhou grain wholesale market were 1.18 yuan and 1.24 yuan per catty, respectively, down 4.4% and 6.5% year-on-year.
Corn: there is a gap between production and demand, the inventory is still abundant, and the price fluctuates slightly. Affected by the continuous adjustment of planting structure, the corn area decreased slightly in 2019, but the meteorological conditions in the main producing areas were generally better than the previous year, and the corn output increased by 1.4%. Affected by the decline of pig production capacity, the consumption of corn feed for pigs decreased, but the consumption of substitute feed such as meat and poultry increased obviously, and the consumption of corn feed decreased slightly overall. New projects for corn deep processing increased, and industrial consumption increased rigidly. In 2019, the gap between corn production and demand was about 50 billion Jin, but due to the high inventory level, the relationship between corn supply and demand remained balanced and loose, and the market operation was basically stable. After the new corn came into the market in autumn, the prices of the main producing areas in North China and Northeast China dropped slightly. In December, the wholesale price of corn producing areas was 0.92 yuan per catty, down 1.2% from the previous month and 2.8% from the same period last year.
Soybean: Imports continue to decrease, and prices are mainly stable. Affected by Sino-US economic and trade frictions, soybean imports declined slightly, and the import sources were further concentrated in Brazil and Argentina. From January to December, the after-tax price of imported soybeans in Qingdao Port first fell and then rose, and fluctuated slightly between 1.55 yuan and 1.65 yuan per catty. In December, the ex-factory price of medium soybean meal in Shandong was 2930 yuan per ton, down 4.4% from the previous month and 2.2% from the same period last year. Domestic soybean production continued to resume growth, the market was booming, and the price was stable and strong.
Pork: the production capacity of live pigs gradually recovered before the end of the year, and the price continued to rise and then fell back. Since 2019, due to the superposition of pig cycle, African swine fever epidemic, unreasonable ban on raising in some areas and other factors, the production capacity of live pigs has dropped more, the supply of pork market has continued to be tight, and the price has increased greatly. Since October, with the intensive introduction and implementation of a series of national and local policies and measures for stable production and supply of live pigs, the confidence of farm households in raising and supplementing pens has increased, the production of live pigs in China has stopped falling and rebounded, the market is expected to stabilize, and the pork price has remained generally stable after falling back. In December, the average wholesale price of pork was around 43 yuan per kilogram. Driven by the rise in pig prices, the prices of beef, sheep, poultry, eggs and milk have generally strengthened, but the production of these products has increased a lot, and the market supply is sufficient, which is significantly lower than that of pork.
Looking forward to 2020, the total supply of bulk agricultural products such as grain, cotton, oil and sugar in China is still relatively loose, the pig production capacity is expected to gradually recover, and the market will continue to operate smoothly, which has a good foundation. The annual price increase of agricultural products is expected to fall back, but the risk of periodic fluctuations of some varieties needs to be closely watched.
I would like to take this opportunity to briefly introduce the key work in the field of agricultural and rural market information. On December 25th last year, the Ministry held a national conference on agricultural and rural market information, which laid out the key tasks in the field of agricultural and rural market information this year and in the future. First, we will speed up the implementation of the "internet plus" agricultural products project, focusing on the construction of 100 pilot counties this year. The second is to further promote the entry of information into villages and households, and achieve the goal of covering 80% of administrative villages this year. Third, strengthen monitoring, statistics, analysis and early warning, and organize the 2020 agricultural outlook Conference on April 20 to give full play to the supporting role of data in management and decision-making. Fourth, strengthen brand building in an all-round way, enlarge and strengthen the dominant area of agricultural products with China characteristics, vigorously promote the docking of agricultural products production and marketing in poverty-stricken areas, and run the 4th China International Tea Expo on May 20th and the 18th China International Agricultural Products Fair on November 27th. Fifth, accelerate the construction of market circulation system, start the construction project of cold chain logistics facilities for storage and preservation of agricultural products, and strive to improve the commercialization processing capacity of agricultural products. Sixth, do a good job in the construction of urban modern agriculture and continue to strengthen the implementation of the "vegetable basket" mayor responsibility system. Seventh, with the theme of "Celebrating Harvest and Meeting a Well-off Society", we will run the China Farmers Harvest Festival well, and strive to make the Harvest Festival become a vulgar custom after another year of careful organization and implementation, with sustained and strong influence, appeal and cohesion.
Here, I would like to introduce to you the relevant situation of the project of "internet plus" agricultural products leaving the village and entering the city. This document was approved by the State Council. On December 16th last year, our Ministry, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the Guiding Opinions on the Implementation of the "internet plus" Agricultural Products Project. The main idea is to transform and upgrade the whole industrial chain, establish a supply chain system, an operation service system and a support and guarantee system suitable for online sales, promote the smooth sales of agricultural products with high quality and good price, solve the problem of small farmers connecting with the big market, and help poverty alleviation and agricultural and rural modernization.
Now my colleagues and I are willing to answer your questions.
Ning Qiwen:
Thank you, Director Keke, for your introduction. Let’s invite reporters to ask questions about the theme of today’s press conference. Please inform the news organizations you represent when asking questions. Let’s start asking questions.
CCTV reporter from the Central Radio and Television General Station:
The Spring Festival is coming. Could you tell us something about the pork supply situation? Can pork prices remain stable? Thank you.
Wang Junxun, Second Inspector of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau:
Thank you for your question. Spring Festival is the most important traditional festival for our people, and it is also the peak of pork consumption in a year, so it is very important to ensure the supply of pork and other "vegetable basket" products during the Spring Festival. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs attaches great importance to this and does everything possible to speed up the recovery and development of pig production and increase market supply. From the monitoring situation in December, some pig farmers began to concentrate on the listing of fat pigs in the early stage. In December, the slaughter of pigs increased by 14.1% month-on-month, and the average live weight of slaughter reached an unprecedented 128.5 kg. According to comprehensive calculations, the pork output will increase by 17.1%. According to the consumption monitoring data, the retail transaction volume of pork in the bazaar increased by 11.7% in December. Although both supply and demand are increasing, the contradiction between supply and demand of pork has eased. As far as we know, there are still a certain number of large pigs in stock, which will be released gradually before the Spring Festival. The stocks of some slaughtering, processing and circulation enterprises are being shipped one after another, and the government reserves and imported pork are also being put in one after another. In addition, the peak period of making bacon in the south and killing pigs in the north will soon pass. These positive factors do not support the further increase in pork prices before the Spring Festival. According to the survey, pork consumption will generally decline after the Spring Festival. We expect that the supply and demand of pork will be generally stable before and after the Spring Festival. From the price changes, in the past 10 years, the prices of live pigs and pork rose more and fell less in the first half of January every year, showing the characteristics of 7 rises, 1 draw and 2 falls. This year’s situation is roughly the same as that of the same period in normal years. In addition, the production of beef, mutton, poultry, eggs and milk increased in an all-round way in 2019. According to the preliminary calculation of monitoring data,The output of poultry meat has increased by more than 15%, the output of beef and mutton has increased by about 3%, and the output of eggs has increased by about 5.7%. These products are abundant in the market, which not only fills the gap in pork supply to a certain extent, but also satisfies and enriches the "vegetable basket" of ordinary people. Thank you.
Farmers’ Daily Financial Media Reporter:
Since December last year, the price of vegetables has increased. What is the main reason? What will be the trend of vegetable prices during the Spring Festival?
Keke:
Thank you, the production of agricultural products is cyclical and seasonal, so it is normal for prices to fluctuate within a certain range. The vegetable prices you mentioned just now have been rising continuously at this time. We are also concerned that the vegetable prices in China have entered a seasonal rising channel since the winter, and the increase has increased in December last year. The national average wholesale price of 28 kinds of vegetables monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is 4.56 yuan per kilogram, up 16.3% from the previous month and 22.3% higher than the same period last year. According to the situation in previous years, most of the open-field vegetables listed in winter decreased, "greenhouse vegetables" and "southern vegetables" became the main products in the market, the cost of production and circulation increased accordingly, and the price of vegetables generally increased significantly. Generally speaking, the current fluctuation of vegetable prices basically conforms to the law of previous years. The price increase is a little larger than the previous month, mainly because there were two rounds of rain and snow cooling weather in the main vegetable producing areas in winter and spring, and the cross-regional circulation of vegetables was affected by stages. In addition, the early Spring Festival in 2020 and the early stocking of the market led to a rapid rise in short-term prices. The price level is higher than the same period of last year, mainly because in the first half of 2019, the prices of some varieties such as cauliflower, beans, cucumber and zucchini were depressed, and the willingness of vegetable farmers to plant decreased and the area decreased, which led to a large increase in market prices and raised the overall vegetable price.
From the later trend, due to the normal warmer temperature in winter in 2019, it is more favorable for the production of protected vegetables in the north and overwintering vegetables in the south, and the production and supply of vegetables are generally guaranteed. According to the monitoring of our department, in the second half of 2019, the cumulative transaction volume of 28 key vegetables in the national wholesale market increased by 4.7% compared with the first half of the year, with a steady increase year-on-year. If there is no persistent large-scale disastrous weather before the Spring Festival, the price of vegetables is expected to remain basically stable, and the price may decrease steadily after the holiday.
For vegetable varieties such as cauliflower, cucumber and zucchini, the price in the early stage is obviously higher than that in the perennial period, the majority of vegetable farmers are reminded to adjust their planting plans slightly slowly in 2020, and pay attention to prevent the price from falling sharply and the risk of difficult selling in stages caused by excessive expansion.
Central Radio and Television General Station Yang Guang reporter:
Last year, fruit was also a variety with high attention. What was the fruit market situation in the fourth quarter of 2019 and what was the price trend in the later period? Thank you.
Keke:
In 2019, the supply of China’s fruit market was generally abundant, the price was high before and then low, and the fluctuation range was relatively large, but it was still generally in line with the seasonal laws of previous years. In the first half of the year, fruit prices continued to rise. In June, the wholesale prices of apples and pears more than doubled year-on-year, mainly due to the cold weather in late spring in the main producing areas of apples and pears in 2018, resulting in a large reduction in production. In the second half of the year, with a large number of fruits coming into the market in summer and autumn, the output of apples and pears resumed obviously, and the price of fruits fell seasonally. Since October, it has been lower than the same period of last year, and the price was basically stable in November and December, with a year-on-year decline of more than 10%. From the later trend, the fruit market is mainly supplied with stock fruit, with increased cost and consumption in the peak season. It is expected that the fruit price will increase slightly before the Spring Festival, but the total supply of fruit market is sufficient and the variety is rich, especially the storage rate of apples has reached a historical high. In most areas, the storage rate of cold storage has reached 80-90%, so it is unlikely that the fruit price will fluctuate greatly. After the holiday, with the weakening of consumption, the price will drop slightly. Due to the warmer climate in winter in 2019, some fruits ripened earlier in the first half of this year. Fruit farmers should pay attention to rationally planning the pace of listing, avoid blindly grabbing the market early, ensure the quality of fruits, and strive for better returns. Thank you.
China Daily reporter:
It was introduced at the press conference a few days ago that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently organized a nationwide inspection of slaughter links. Can you tell us about the results of the inspection? Thank you.
Wang Junxun:
Thank you for your question. In order to ensure the pork supply and quality and safety during the Spring Festival, the Ministry organized a nationwide inspection of pig slaughtering, which was completed before January 10th, and the local agricultural and rural departments carried out a full coverage inspection of 4,578 pig slaughtering enterprises currently in production. For the problems found in the inspection, measures such as immediate rectification and rectification within a time limit shall be taken. In addition, our department, led by four department leaders and seven department directors, conducted supervision and spot checks on some pig slaughtering enterprises in 11 provinces.
From the preliminary summary of the inspection, all pig slaughtering enterprises have implemented the self-inspection system of African swine fever, and carried out the inspection of African swine fever in accordance with the requirements of "batch inspection and full coverage". Local agricultural and rural departments have stationed official veterinarians to pig slaughtering enterprises according to law; All pig slaughtering enterprises have established and implemented rules and regulations such as pig entry inspection, meat quality inspection, meat exit management, and harmless treatment of diseased pigs and diseased products, effectively ensuring the quality and safety of pork products, so that ordinary people can eat assured meat.
Judging from the production situation of slaughter enterprises, the amount of pig slaughter has steadily increased recently. According to monitoring, since November, the amount of pig slaughter has increased for ten consecutive weeks. More than 700,000 tons of pork products stocked by local slaughter enterprises have been put on the market one after another, increasing market supply. During the Spring Festival, the agricultural and rural departments, together with the public security and market supervision departments, will continue to strengthen law enforcement, strictly investigate serious illegal and criminal acts, and ensure the quality and safety of pork products during the festival.
Agricultural TV Network reporter:
In 2019, China’s soybean production will continue to increase. What is the recent soybean market? What will happen next?
Keke:
China’s domestic soybeans are mainly edible, with high protein content, and have formed two relatively independent markets with imported soybeans. Let me talk about domestic soybeans first. Last year, the country implemented the soybean revitalization plan, and the area of domestic soybeans expanded, the output increased, and the quality was excellent. After the new soybeans were listed, processing enterprises and traders actively entered the market to buy them. The sales progress of farmers was fast, and the market was booming, with prices rising steadily. In December 2019, the average purchase price of domestic edible soybeans in Heilongjiang was 1.81 yuan per catty, up 2.4% from the previous month and 1.5% from the same period last year. The incoming price of domestic soybeans in Shandong was 2.11 yuan per catty, up 1.5% month-on-month and 5.1% year-on-year. The closing price of the main soybean contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1.71 yuan per catty, up 3.0% from the previous month and 6.5% from the same period last year. Let’s look at imported soybeans. Since the Sino-US economic and trade friction, China’s soybean imports from the United States have decreased, while those from Brazil and other countries have increased, and the supply of imported soybeans is guaranteed. According to customs data, from January to November 2019, China imported 79.04 million tons of soybeans, a slight decrease of 4.0% year-on-year, of which imports from Brazil accounted for 67%. It is estimated that China’s total soybean imports will increase in 2020, which can meet the soybean meal demand after the recovery of pig production capacity. On the whole, the market price of domestic soybeans, imported soybeans, downstream soybean meal and soybean oil is expected to remain basically stable in 2020. Thank you.
Ning Qiwen:
Thank you to the two publishers, thank you journalists and friends, and today’s press conference is over.